Outlines for this Essay
Over the last two or three decades, there have emerged a great deal of trends and developments on the international scene which have strengthened the possibility of the third world war. Developments, for instance, like the blind nuclear race among various countries, the race among some developed countries to increase their areas of influence, i.e. satellite states, the increasing helplessness of the UN to maintain peace in the world, the unchecked growth of the media propagandas, and above all the American imperialism have forced some people to say that the future of the world is bleak. These developments, they further argue, are undeniably pushing the world towards the third world war which would be much more destructive than the previous two world wars, as most of the belligerent countries would make use of the nuclear power in the case of the third world war. However, there are some people who look at this matter from optimistic angle. Such people hold the opinion that the third world war is not possible. They opine that the world has become a global village with increased level of interdependence among the countries on the socio-economic level, which is a huge hindrance in the outbreak of third world war. In order to find the answer as to whether or not the third world war is possible, it would be quite appropriate to have a detailed view of the issue.
Over the international horizon, there have emerged many trends that reinforce the view that the third world war is imminent. The most prominent among them is the constant weakening of the UN which was the only ray of hope that could prevent the eruption of the third world war. It was established in order to maintain the peace in the world. But unfortunately, it failed in its aim. There is no denying of the fact that UN is rapidly losing its effectiveness with the passage of time. It is proving to be a lame duck. Most often it has been seen that it cannot mend the behaviour of different countries. The belligerent countries remain at liberty to commit acts of their own choice, neglecting the directions of the UN. The countries with veto power make it dance to their own tunes. In other words, it has proved to be a rubber stamp in the hands of these countries. Against the backdrop of such situation, it would be quite idealistic to expect the UN to play a decisive role to prevent the eruption of the third world war.
Therefore, the rapidly weakening role of the UN on the world scene reinforces the possibility of the outbreak of the third world war. Besides the UN, another ray of hope to maintain the peace in the world is the existence of the international law. But, like the UN, it is also proving ineffective with the passage of time. It is being constantly violated by different countries. Countries like Israel and USA show a great deal of indifference to the international law. They seldom show hesitation in behaving in an aggressive way. Such repeated violations of the international law by some countries have, of course, weakened the spirit of this law in such a way that this law has the least capacity to pose an effective barrier to the eruption of the third world war.
Furthermore, the blind nuclear race among different countries is perhaps the main indicator of the arrival of the third world war. Different countries have started to divert their resources towards the accumulation of nuclear arms. The reason behind it is simply because they consider the nuclear power to be the real source of power and dignity. Thus, this power may provoke them some day to demonstrate their power in the same way as the USA did seven decades ago. So the maxim
Besides the nuclear race, there is another race among some countries, i.e. the race to increase their areas of influence. This has given birth to the rise of neo-colonialism. Countries like the USA and Russia have started to interfere in the internal affairs of some countries, especially the developing ones. It has been seen that they give economic incentives to such countries in order to have influence over their affairs. It would be quite pertinent to mention here that the same race to increase the number of their colonies among some countries was the main factor behind the outbreak of the World War II. Now, the repetition of the same phenomenon is perhaps a signal to the eruption of the third world war.
Similarly, the appearance of the media propagandas is getting more and more visible with the passage of time. There is no argument over the fact that media may be the herald of peace in the world if it works in a responsible manner. Similarly, it has capacity to trigger the war if it plays its role in anti-peace manner. But unfortunately, in the present times, media is playing its latter role. It is increasing fissures between different - nations by presenting some critical issues in an irresponsible way. It is bent upon inciting one country's feelings against the other country, taking the relations between them to a breaking point. Such destructive role on the part of media is, perhaps, a presage of the third world war.
Furthermore, the trend of alliances among various countries is getting a stronghold in the present world. Military alliances like NATO are becoming more prominent with the passage of time. The objective of these alliances is to enhance military power more and more. The similar alliances like Triple Alliance and Triple Entente before the World War I, and Allies and Axis in the World War II were the main factors behind the previous world wars. Coupled with military alliances, the phenomenon of regionalism has also potential to deteriorate the global peace. Emergence of regional blocs like European Union, ASEAN can pose a severe threat to peace in case of emergence of conflict between regional blocs, leading to massive war on the global level.
Besides, the appearance of hostile and conflict-exciting theories in the intellectual circles is equally posing a great threat to the peace of the world. For instance, Huntington's theory presented in his book
Perhaps, the most potent factor which can cause the eruption of the third world war is the rising threat of terrorism. Over the last decade, it has increased to such level that it has jeopardized the peace of the world on a large scale. The measures being adopted to counter this threat are proving counter-productive and more resilient. On one hand, it is cutting the very roots of the plant of peace; while on the other, it is increasing the trust deficit among the countries. The increasing trust-deficit may lead to the eruption of the third world war.
Moreover, the emergence of war-mongering leaders is also a barrier to the growth of peace in the world. To be sure, it is the leadership which has the ultimate authority to play its role either for peace or for war. But unfortunately, leaders like Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un are a real threat to global peace. It was the leadership in the form of Hitler and Mussolini, which was mainly responsible for the World War II. Thus, the emergence of war-mongering leadership in the present times is a great barrier to the growth of peace in the world.
In addition to it, the prevailing economic order is not based on the principle of parity. Its axis is more tilted towards the Western countries. The economic organizations like IMF and World Bank are there only to protect the economic interests of the West. Under the garb of financial loans and aid, they, in fact, exploit the resources of the developing countries. The burden of such loans has increased so much on the economies of most of the third world countries that most of their resources are consumed in debt servicing. The continuance of such massive exploitation may, of course, result in increased tensions between the developing countries and the developed ones which may lead towards the outbreak of the third world war.
Last but not the least, the imperialistic policies of the USA are a dire threat to global peace. After the exhaustion of its natural resources and raw material, it has started waying wars against resource-rich countries like Iraq. Being a superpower, the USA tries to run the world according to its own plans, showing complete indifference to the feelings and interests of most of the countrics. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has accelerated the pace of its policy of expansionism. On one hand, it has made the UN a puppet, dancing to its tune; while on the other, it is poking its nose into the internal affairs of other countries. Such hegemonic attitude on the part of the USA is, undoubtedly, a huge barrier in the way of global peace, thus strengthening the possibility of the eruption of the third world war.
So far, we have discussed the factors which have potential to trigger the war. Now we discuss the existing optimistic signs which undermine the possibility of the third world war.
The reason behind war is most often the misunderstanding between countries. The two world wars broke out because at that time there was no platform over which the belligerent countries could be called and given the opportunity to discuss with each other their relevant issues and in this way remove the misunderstanding between them. There is no denying the fact that the UN is a failed institution as far as its effective role is concerned. But it, at least, has the capacity to provide the platform to belligerent countries where they can discuss their relevant issues and remove their grievances against each other. It has already provided such platform in the cases of Cubean Missile crisis and U-2 crisis, thus undermining the possibility of the outbreak of war. Thus, the presence of the UN is in itself a barrier to the eruption of the third world war.
Similarly, the rapid nuclearization of the world is also a blessing in disguise. It is in itself an impediment to the outbreak of war. The belligerent countries are well aware that there will be destruction in case of war erupted as rival country is also in possession of nuclear power. The same phenomenon happened in the Cold War era. The fact that both the USA and Soviet Union had nuclear power proved deterrent to the eruption of direct war between them. The possibility of war between Pakistan and India on the issue of Kargil in 1999 and again in 2002 on the issue of attack on the parliament of India also disappeared due to this very same fact. Thus, the blind nuclear race among various countries is in itself a barrier to the eruption of the third world war.
As far as the role of media is concerned, it has already started to change. It has started to recognize its true role. People are becoming educated and enlightened. They are forcing the media to play its positive role. To be sure, it was media propaganda which caused the eruption of wars in the past by inciting anti-peace feelings in the people, but at that time media was under the patronage of dictators. Now the situation has quite changed. Now it is the public opinion which really matters. Besides, media has won its freedom. It has started to take part in activities which ensure the growth of peace.
In addition to it, the scenario of the world has changed. Most of the countries have started to formulate policies which play a maximum role in strengthening the economy of the country. Countries like China, Japan, and Brazil have set examples in this regard. They form only such alliances with other countries which ensure their economic uplift. Economic alliances among countries have become a norm, increasing economic interdependence among them. Such optimistic scenario, of course, poses an impediment to the outbreak of war because the economically conscious countries are well aware of the fact that the eruption of war will shatter their economic system to the point of no return.
Moreover, it is quite essential to take the following steps in order to absolutely eliminate the possibility of the third world war.
First of all, there is a dire need to introduce some revolutionary changes in the UN in order to make it a vibrant organization that could play an effective role in the maintenance of peace in the world. The permanent membership to Security Council should be increased so that every continent is equally represented in it. This measure, on the one hand, will create balance of power in the Security Council; while on the other, it will ensure the security of almost all the members of UN against the hegemonic attitude of superpowers. Needless to say, the restructuring of UN is indispensable for the peace of the world.
Similarly, international law should be made more dynamic and vigorous in order to mend the depraved behaviour of the countries that tend to show indifference to it. The principle of parity should be ensured in its implementation. Strict and exemplary actions should be taken against the countries that blatantly violate this law. The strict and impartial implementation of international law is extremely necessary to crush the antipeace forces in the world.
Furthermore, steps should be taken to denuclearize the countries with nuclear power. Instead of introducing treaties like START, SALT, CTBT, NPT, there should be introduced treaties which have the capacity to ensure the absolute elimination of the threat of nuclear power. To be sure, the plant of peace cannot grow freely in the presence of this threat. This is because the weaker countries continue to remain in the grip of fear in the presence of nuclearized countries. This continued fear is a great barrier to the growth of peace in the world. Therefore, it is really necessary to deprive countries of their nuclear power in order to eliminate the possibility of the third world war.
Similarly, there is an acute need to crush the growing tendency of the neocolonialism. There is a need to put more emphasis on the principles of equality and sovereignty in order to ensure the existence of the egalitarian world. Concrete steps should be taken by UN to emancipate the developing countries from the economic slavery of some developed countries.
The tendency of neo-colonialism is necessary to be eliminated with iron hands in order to ensure the sovereignty of developing countries. Moreover, media can play a decisive role in promoting peace in the world. It should use its freedom in a responsible manner. It should recognize the fact that peace is the most desired thing in the world.
It should project only those incidences which are likely to promote peace in the society. It should avoid giving air to the conflicts which may excite anti-peace feelings among the people. It should promote the principle of coexistence in the world. In this way, it can be a great tool of peace in the world.
Similarly, intelligentsia needs to play its positive role. Instead of promoting conflict-inciting views, it should put forward peace-promoting views. It needs to come to the forefront in order to be harbinger of peace. To be sure, it can play this role effectively because it has great influence over the minds of the people. It can promote peace by making clear to the people the horrible disastrous effects of the war.
Most importantly, there is an urgent need to counter the rising threat of terrorism. This threat can be crushed through the propagation of judicious and well advised policies. There is need to fight against this threat at every front. It can be effectively eliminated through the 3Ds, i.e. dialogue, deterrence and development. The complete elimination of this threat is extremely necessary because it alone has the capacity to trigger the war. If its root causes are properly addressed, peace will automatically grow in the world.
All the discussion drives us towards the conclusion that war involves human action so it can be prevented. To be sure, there are some factors like the weakening institution of UN, recurrent violations of the international law, rapid nuclearization of the world, emergence of neo-colonialism, rise of media propagandas, formation of military alliances, rising threat of terrorism, American imperialism, etc. which have potential to cause the eruption of the third world war.
However, these factors are not of such nature which can defy their elimination. They can be effectively eliminated by taking decisive steps like restructuring the UN, impartial implementation of the international law, denuclearization of the countries in possession of nuclear power, stress on sovereignty of developing countries, formation of economic blocs, positive and peace promoting role on the part of media and intelligentsia, elimination of the threat of terrorism through dialogue, deterrence and development, growth of multi-polarity of the world, etc. If these steps are taken effectively, they will go a long way to ensure the complete elimination of the threat of the third world war, thus making the world a better place to live in.
- Introduction Over the last two or three decades, there have emerged a great deal of trends and developments on the international scene which have strengthened the possibility of the third world war.
- Factors Strengthening the possibility of the Third World War
- Constant weakening of the UN
- Increased violation of international law
- Blind nuclear race among different countries
- The rise of neo-colonialism
- Destructive role of global media
- Emergence of military alliances
- Rise of regionalism
- Anti-peace role of some elements among the intelligentsia
- Threat of global terrorism
- Presence of some hawkish and war-mongering leaders
- Unjust nature of global economic order
- Imperialistic policies of the USA Are there any Reasons to be Optimistic?
- Nuclear power as a great deterrence
- The world as a global village
- Rise of economic alliances
- Spread of democracy across the world
- Emergence of informed and enlightened public opinion
- Appearance of pro-peace NGOs.
- Steps to Eliminate the possibility of the Third World War
- Reforming the UN ii. Strengthening international law
- Prompting treaties of denuclearization
- Encouraging egalitarian world order
- Working towards more responsible and enlightened media
- Countering global terrorism through dialogue, deterrence and development
- Intelligentsia as the harbinger of peace
- Conclusion
Over the international horizon, there have emerged many trends that reinforce the view that the third world war is imminent. The most prominent among them is the constant weakening of the UN which was the only ray of hope that could prevent the eruption of the third world war. It was established in order to maintain the peace in the world. But unfortunately, it failed in its aim. There is no denying of the fact that UN is rapidly losing its effectiveness with the passage of time. It is proving to be a lame duck. Most often it has been seen that it cannot mend the behaviour of different countries. The belligerent countries remain at liberty to commit acts of their own choice, neglecting the directions of the UN. The countries with veto power make it dance to their own tunes. In other words, it has proved to be a rubber stamp in the hands of these countries. Against the backdrop of such situation, it would be quite idealistic to expect the UN to play a decisive role to prevent the eruption of the third world war.
Therefore, the rapidly weakening role of the UN on the world scene reinforces the possibility of the outbreak of the third world war. Besides the UN, another ray of hope to maintain the peace in the world is the existence of the international law. But, like the UN, it is also proving ineffective with the passage of time. It is being constantly violated by different countries. Countries like Israel and USA show a great deal of indifference to the international law. They seldom show hesitation in behaving in an aggressive way. Such repeated violations of the international law by some countries have, of course, weakened the spirit of this law in such a way that this law has the least capacity to pose an effective barrier to the eruption of the third world war.
Furthermore, the blind nuclear race among different countries is perhaps the main indicator of the arrival of the third world war. Different countries have started to divert their resources towards the accumulation of nuclear arms. The reason behind it is simply because they consider the nuclear power to be the real source of power and dignity. Thus, this power may provoke them some day to demonstrate their power in the same way as the USA did seven decades ago. So the maxim
“power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely"is truly applicable to the present scenario and this may portend the advent of the third world war.
Besides the nuclear race, there is another race among some countries, i.e. the race to increase their areas of influence. This has given birth to the rise of neo-colonialism. Countries like the USA and Russia have started to interfere in the internal affairs of some countries, especially the developing ones. It has been seen that they give economic incentives to such countries in order to have influence over their affairs. It would be quite pertinent to mention here that the same race to increase the number of their colonies among some countries was the main factor behind the outbreak of the World War II. Now, the repetition of the same phenomenon is perhaps a signal to the eruption of the third world war.
Similarly, the appearance of the media propagandas is getting more and more visible with the passage of time. There is no argument over the fact that media may be the herald of peace in the world if it works in a responsible manner. Similarly, it has capacity to trigger the war if it plays its role in anti-peace manner. But unfortunately, in the present times, media is playing its latter role. It is increasing fissures between different - nations by presenting some critical issues in an irresponsible way. It is bent upon inciting one country's feelings against the other country, taking the relations between them to a breaking point. Such destructive role on the part of media is, perhaps, a presage of the third world war.
Furthermore, the trend of alliances among various countries is getting a stronghold in the present world. Military alliances like NATO are becoming more prominent with the passage of time. The objective of these alliances is to enhance military power more and more. The similar alliances like Triple Alliance and Triple Entente before the World War I, and Allies and Axis in the World War II were the main factors behind the previous world wars. Coupled with military alliances, the phenomenon of regionalism has also potential to deteriorate the global peace. Emergence of regional blocs like European Union, ASEAN can pose a severe threat to peace in case of emergence of conflict between regional blocs, leading to massive war on the global level.
Besides, the appearance of hostile and conflict-exciting theories in the intellectual circles is equally posing a great threat to the peace of the world. For instance, Huntington's theory presented in his book
"Clash of Civilization”and that of Francis Fukuyama in
"End of History"are having anti-peace imprints over the minds of the people. According to Huntington, the present civilizations cannot exist in harmony because they are contradictory to each other. This contradiction may result in the clash of civilizations, especially the Islamic civilization and Western civilization. Such anti-peace views on the part of the intelligentsia are the efforts to undermining peace in the world. The similar theories were put forward by German philosopher, Nietzsche which provoked anti-peace feelings in the Germans, which ultimately resulted in the World War I. Thus, the appearance of the same theories also reinforces the possibility of the third world war.
Perhaps, the most potent factor which can cause the eruption of the third world war is the rising threat of terrorism. Over the last decade, it has increased to such level that it has jeopardized the peace of the world on a large scale. The measures being adopted to counter this threat are proving counter-productive and more resilient. On one hand, it is cutting the very roots of the plant of peace; while on the other, it is increasing the trust deficit among the countries. The increasing trust-deficit may lead to the eruption of the third world war.
Moreover, the emergence of war-mongering leaders is also a barrier to the growth of peace in the world. To be sure, it is the leadership which has the ultimate authority to play its role either for peace or for war. But unfortunately, leaders like Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un are a real threat to global peace. It was the leadership in the form of Hitler and Mussolini, which was mainly responsible for the World War II. Thus, the emergence of war-mongering leadership in the present times is a great barrier to the growth of peace in the world.
In addition to it, the prevailing economic order is not based on the principle of parity. Its axis is more tilted towards the Western countries. The economic organizations like IMF and World Bank are there only to protect the economic interests of the West. Under the garb of financial loans and aid, they, in fact, exploit the resources of the developing countries. The burden of such loans has increased so much on the economies of most of the third world countries that most of their resources are consumed in debt servicing. The continuance of such massive exploitation may, of course, result in increased tensions between the developing countries and the developed ones which may lead towards the outbreak of the third world war.
Last but not the least, the imperialistic policies of the USA are a dire threat to global peace. After the exhaustion of its natural resources and raw material, it has started waying wars against resource-rich countries like Iraq. Being a superpower, the USA tries to run the world according to its own plans, showing complete indifference to the feelings and interests of most of the countrics. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has accelerated the pace of its policy of expansionism. On one hand, it has made the UN a puppet, dancing to its tune; while on the other, it is poking its nose into the internal affairs of other countries. Such hegemonic attitude on the part of the USA is, undoubtedly, a huge barrier in the way of global peace, thus strengthening the possibility of the eruption of the third world war.
So far, we have discussed the factors which have potential to trigger the war. Now we discuss the existing optimistic signs which undermine the possibility of the third world war.
The reason behind war is most often the misunderstanding between countries. The two world wars broke out because at that time there was no platform over which the belligerent countries could be called and given the opportunity to discuss with each other their relevant issues and in this way remove the misunderstanding between them. There is no denying the fact that the UN is a failed institution as far as its effective role is concerned. But it, at least, has the capacity to provide the platform to belligerent countries where they can discuss their relevant issues and remove their grievances against each other. It has already provided such platform in the cases of Cubean Missile crisis and U-2 crisis, thus undermining the possibility of the outbreak of war. Thus, the presence of the UN is in itself a barrier to the eruption of the third world war.
Similarly, the rapid nuclearization of the world is also a blessing in disguise. It is in itself an impediment to the outbreak of war. The belligerent countries are well aware that there will be destruction in case of war erupted as rival country is also in possession of nuclear power. The same phenomenon happened in the Cold War era. The fact that both the USA and Soviet Union had nuclear power proved deterrent to the eruption of direct war between them. The possibility of war between Pakistan and India on the issue of Kargil in 1999 and again in 2002 on the issue of attack on the parliament of India also disappeared due to this very same fact. Thus, the blind nuclear race among various countries is in itself a barrier to the eruption of the third world war.
As far as the role of media is concerned, it has already started to change. It has started to recognize its true role. People are becoming educated and enlightened. They are forcing the media to play its positive role. To be sure, it was media propaganda which caused the eruption of wars in the past by inciting anti-peace feelings in the people, but at that time media was under the patronage of dictators. Now the situation has quite changed. Now it is the public opinion which really matters. Besides, media has won its freedom. It has started to take part in activities which ensure the growth of peace.
In addition to it, the scenario of the world has changed. Most of the countries have started to formulate policies which play a maximum role in strengthening the economy of the country. Countries like China, Japan, and Brazil have set examples in this regard. They form only such alliances with other countries which ensure their economic uplift. Economic alliances among countries have become a norm, increasing economic interdependence among them. Such optimistic scenario, of course, poses an impediment to the outbreak of war because the economically conscious countries are well aware of the fact that the eruption of war will shatter their economic system to the point of no return.
Moreover, it is quite essential to take the following steps in order to absolutely eliminate the possibility of the third world war.
First of all, there is a dire need to introduce some revolutionary changes in the UN in order to make it a vibrant organization that could play an effective role in the maintenance of peace in the world. The permanent membership to Security Council should be increased so that every continent is equally represented in it. This measure, on the one hand, will create balance of power in the Security Council; while on the other, it will ensure the security of almost all the members of UN against the hegemonic attitude of superpowers. Needless to say, the restructuring of UN is indispensable for the peace of the world.
Similarly, international law should be made more dynamic and vigorous in order to mend the depraved behaviour of the countries that tend to show indifference to it. The principle of parity should be ensured in its implementation. Strict and exemplary actions should be taken against the countries that blatantly violate this law. The strict and impartial implementation of international law is extremely necessary to crush the antipeace forces in the world.
Furthermore, steps should be taken to denuclearize the countries with nuclear power. Instead of introducing treaties like START, SALT, CTBT, NPT, there should be introduced treaties which have the capacity to ensure the absolute elimination of the threat of nuclear power. To be sure, the plant of peace cannot grow freely in the presence of this threat. This is because the weaker countries continue to remain in the grip of fear in the presence of nuclearized countries. This continued fear is a great barrier to the growth of peace in the world. Therefore, it is really necessary to deprive countries of their nuclear power in order to eliminate the possibility of the third world war.
Similarly, there is an acute need to crush the growing tendency of the neocolonialism. There is a need to put more emphasis on the principles of equality and sovereignty in order to ensure the existence of the egalitarian world. Concrete steps should be taken by UN to emancipate the developing countries from the economic slavery of some developed countries.
The tendency of neo-colonialism is necessary to be eliminated with iron hands in order to ensure the sovereignty of developing countries. Moreover, media can play a decisive role in promoting peace in the world. It should use its freedom in a responsible manner. It should recognize the fact that peace is the most desired thing in the world.
It should project only those incidences which are likely to promote peace in the society. It should avoid giving air to the conflicts which may excite anti-peace feelings among the people. It should promote the principle of coexistence in the world. In this way, it can be a great tool of peace in the world.
Similarly, intelligentsia needs to play its positive role. Instead of promoting conflict-inciting views, it should put forward peace-promoting views. It needs to come to the forefront in order to be harbinger of peace. To be sure, it can play this role effectively because it has great influence over the minds of the people. It can promote peace by making clear to the people the horrible disastrous effects of the war.
Most importantly, there is an urgent need to counter the rising threat of terrorism. This threat can be crushed through the propagation of judicious and well advised policies. There is need to fight against this threat at every front. It can be effectively eliminated through the 3Ds, i.e. dialogue, deterrence and development. The complete elimination of this threat is extremely necessary because it alone has the capacity to trigger the war. If its root causes are properly addressed, peace will automatically grow in the world.
All the discussion drives us towards the conclusion that war involves human action so it can be prevented. To be sure, there are some factors like the weakening institution of UN, recurrent violations of the international law, rapid nuclearization of the world, emergence of neo-colonialism, rise of media propagandas, formation of military alliances, rising threat of terrorism, American imperialism, etc. which have potential to cause the eruption of the third world war.
However, these factors are not of such nature which can defy their elimination. They can be effectively eliminated by taking decisive steps like restructuring the UN, impartial implementation of the international law, denuclearization of the countries in possession of nuclear power, stress on sovereignty of developing countries, formation of economic blocs, positive and peace promoting role on the part of media and intelligentsia, elimination of the threat of terrorism through dialogue, deterrence and development, growth of multi-polarity of the world, etc. If these steps are taken effectively, they will go a long way to ensure the complete elimination of the threat of the third world war, thus making the world a better place to live in.
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